Commentary on Iran

I've been off the grid, so I have a lot to catch up on

I spent the last few days off the grid (at least, my version of off the grid), playing a very long softball tournament in Saint Louis humidity. I came back to a war, a near-deal, and a Sam Harris essay that said better than I have what I have been trying to say for two years. A lot to catch up on.

Here is where I am:

Israel is not trying to expand into Lebanon. Let me say that again for the people in the back. This war is not about Lebanese land, Lebanese sovereignty, or any Israeli appetite for a northern neighbor’s territory. Iran struck Israel because Israel was striking Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not a Lebanese political party that got a little rowdy. It is, functionally, a branch of the Iranian military operating on Lebanese soil. Iran had nothing to do with this conflict in the sense that matters: if Lebanon were actually in control of its own people and its own territory, none of this happens. The strike also tells you something important about how much Iran wants peace. Just as Lebanon was beginning to signal that it was not a puppet of the IRGC, just as a deal between Israel and Lebanon was showing signs of life, that is when Iran moved. Several attacks, even the Oct. 7th attack, are designed primarily to derail peace deals between Israel and potential partners.

Israel was right to respond. It cannot become normalized that Iran fires on Israel and Israel absorbs it. A country that cannot respond to an attack on its own people is not a country. Israel has a right to defend itself. Full stop.

While we are here, let us clear something up. Israel has never launched a war of aggression. Not one. Every conflict it has ever fought, including the preemptive strikes of 1967, came in direct response to imminent and declared threats. In 1967, Egypt had blockaded Israeli shipping, massed forces on the border, and signed a mutual defense pact with Jordan. The preemptive strike Israel launched was not aggression. It was math. Every war since has followed the same basic structure: someone attacks Israel, Israel defends itself, the world condemns Israel. What is remarkable, and telling, is that Israel seems to be the only country on earth that is not permitted to win the wars it did not start.

The Problem with an Iran deal. There is nothing inherently wrong with the agreement being discussed, just as there was nothing inherently wrong with the Obama-era nuclear deal. The problem has never been the architecture of a deal. The problem is the people with whom we are dealing. Any agreement, even a perfect one, is only as good as the parties who hold it. Iran cannot be trusted, period. There is no version of an arrangement with that regime that lets Israelis, or most of the West, sleep soundly. The question is not whether the deal is well-written. The question is what Iran does on the morning after signing it.

Peace holds. Ceasefires do not. The proof is in the record. Every peace agreement Israel has ever signed has held. The Egypt deal has held for nearly five decades. The Jordan deal has held. The Abraham Accords countries have not gone back to war. In a few generations we went from a Jordanian invasion of Israel to Jordan helping Israel intercept Iranian missiles. That is what peace looks like when the other party actually wants it. Compare that to every ceasefire Israel has ever signed with Hamas or Hezbollah. Every single one has ended the same way. The pattern tells you everything you need to know about who in this region wants peace and who wants a pause.

Sam Harris wrote something this week that you should read. I will link it. He wrote about why he refuses to debate critics of Israel, and in doing so he said what I have been circling for two years. Israel and Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, they do not occupy the same moral universe. They are not two sides of a conflict who simply disagree. One side builds bomb shelters for its civilians. The other builds tunnels under them. One side holds war crimes investigations. The other films the atrocities as recruiting content. What much of the West cannot bring itself to say plainly is that the movements Israel is fighting are death cults. Their theology organizes itself around death. That is not a slur. That is a description of what they believe and how they act. Israel has made mistakes. The IDF has made mistakes. You know I do not give out blanket passes. But no honest accounting puts Israel and its enemies on the same moral plane. Harris said it with more precision than I have managed. Go read it.

Why I Won’t Debate Critics of Israel

The humidity in Saint Louis was brutal. It is good to be back to New Orleans humidity.